房地产市场泡沫测度:珠三角实证

准确测度一国或地区的房地产市场泡沫水平和投机程度,是正确认识和有效解决房地产市场相关问题的基础.2008年,我国房地产市场价格在持续快速上涨后出现一定程度的回落,在市场的波动中如何准确测算其泡沫程度值得关注.目前对于房地产泡沫的测度方法不一,本文综合采用多种方法测算珠三角房地产市场泡沫,力求全面准确反映房地产市场真实的泡沫程度和房价合理度.结论显示:珠三角各地市房地产市场都存在不同程度的泡沫,当前的房价不尽合理,首付款和还贷压力均成为抑制市场需求的瓶颈.     

长春市低收入家庭的住房供应问题

住房问题是全社会普遍关注的问题，特别是低收入家庭住房问题更是全社会最突出的问题，它直接关系到人们生活水平的高低，对整个社会经济也产生巨大的影响。     

中国房地产市场协调发展探析

经历了一年左右以销售量萎缩为主要特征的调整后，土地一级市场“地王”频现，商品房销售量大幅反弹，一些城市的商品房价格快速上涨，许多人担心房价上涨失控。中国房地产业因未来经济发展、城市化加速等，具备向好的客观条件，但发达国家房地产市场走过的历程告诉我们，房地产市场具有起落周期，中国房地产市场应极力避免大起大落，而协调发展是房地产市场平稳健康发展的基础。     

基于遗传算法的升余弦形成滤波器优化设计

采用实数码遗传算法对升余弦形成滤波器进行了优化设计，克服和标准遗传算法效率低和未成熟收敛及确定性优化方法易收敛于局部极值点的缺点，实例设计结果表明该方法十分有效。     

Mortgage Put Options and Real Estate Markets

In this paper we offer direct evidence that financial intermediation does impact underlying asset markets. We develop a specific observable symptom of a banking system that underprices the put option imbedded in non-recourse asset-backed lending. Using a dataset for 19 countries and over 500 real estate investment trusts, we find that, following a negative demand shock, the “underpricing” economies experience far deeper asset market crashes than economies in which the put option is correctly priced.

银行信贷与房地产市场的非理性

房产泡沫的形成可以用传统的套利机制和市场有效性假说来解释,本文从房产市场供求均衡的前提推导出银行过于乐观地对房产部门提供资金是推高房价的重要因素,并从银行资产组合配置的角度分析了影响银行对房产部门信贷的主要因素。除了房贷资产的预期收益、房贷违约率等因素,最重要的因素是银行的灾难近视和市场主体面临的不当激励。     

Sustainable development. With or without mankind?

The author challenges the conventional wisdom that the main risk to Western development is environmental degradation caused by mankind. Concern over the greenhouse effect and global warming have more to do with millenium fever than reality. There is still very little evidence to suggest that these environmental phenomena result from human activity. What we do know is that there have been major cyclical fluctuations throughout history. The author cautions against implementing ‘scientistic’ policies in the face of such doubts, just because it is trendy to do so.     

浅议利率波动对房地产投资信托基金的影响

房地产投资信托基金(Real estate investment trusts,REITs)的高分配收益特征使其对利率波动的敏感性较强,而房地产业自身也易受利率变化的影响。1973年和2005年美国联邦局对利率的上调对REITs价格和收益都造成了重大影响,利率上调,REITs经营成本增加,REITs的总体回报率减少,直接影响到其投资价值和回报率。     

试论我国不动产登记机构

本文对不动产登记机构立法例进行了比较与评析,并分析了我国不动产登记的现状,认为国外由司法机关作为不动产登记机构虽有其法理优势,但并不适合我国现状,我国未来不动产登记机构的选择应该是在尊重现状的情况下,对目前不动产登记机构进行形式上的合并组成统一的不动产登记机构。     

Office Construction in Singapore and Hong Kong: Testing Real Option Implications

We advance the real-option-based empirical analysis of commercial real estate investment in three respects. First, we test several real option implications for real estate construction that have not been examined in the commercial real estate investment literature. In particular and in line with the predictions of real option models, we show that the effects of real interest rate and the expected demand growth on hurdle rent become more negative when the market volatility is greater. Second, we use a cointegrating vector of office employment and office stock to provide a better control of the demand for new construction than traditional indicators based on real estate prices and vacancy rates. Third, whereas the existing studies focus on the U.S. commercial real estate markets, we study two major office markets in Asia, namely Singapore and Hong Kong. We rely on the local stock market in the two city states to derive forward-looking measures of office demand growth expectations.